Saturday, February 16, 2008

My Prediction

Here's my prediction in the presidential race.

Scenario 1: McCain and Clinton are the nominees:

In this scenario, McCain will have a good shot at winning the presidential race. Hillary Clinton has such strong negatives with Republicans that they will rally around McCain even if he wasn't their first choice. This extra energy will just barely push McCain over the top for the win.

Scenario 2: McCain and Obama are the nominees:

In this scenario, McCain will look very old and out of touch with many Americans. He will try to win on experience but will be much like Bob Dole when he got beat by Bill Clinton in 1992. Bob Dole was more than qualified to be president but he was of an earlier generation and did not communicate as well as the younger Arkansas governor. There are real similarities between that race and this one. Obama is a gifted communicator and seems to be able to communicate a vision that gets a lot of people very motivated. This energy will spill over into grassroots volunteers that will work endlessly on Obama's behalf. I do not see that same energy being there for McCain. Obama will win with a bit of a margin.

So, we'll see what happens.